Notes on Demographic Transition

           According to Wikipedia, "Demographic Transition is the transition from high birth and death rates to lower birth and death rates as a country or a region developed from a pre-industrial to a industrialized economic system." When put in simpler terms, demographic transition is the transition from a pre-industrial nation with a high birth and death rate to a industrial nation with a low birth and death rate. The demographic transition is thought to predict that as a nation grows to be more wealthy, birth rates will go down. Scholars also question if industrialization and higher income can lead to lower population, or if lower population leads to industrialization and a higher income.
           Most developed countries are in the transition process right now. However there are four-five stages of this transition and all of it happens over a long period of time. The first stage is called pre-transition. This is categorized by high birth rates, and high fluctuating death rates. The two will be almost balanced, but both very high. In the second stage, the death rates seem to drop quickly because of food improvements along with improvements in sanitation. This increases life expectancy and reduces diseases. The third stage is when we see birth rates start to fall. This is due to increases in wages, urbanization, an increase in the education of women, and a reduction in the value of children's  work. This is where we see population growth leveling off. In the fourth stage which is mainly considered to be the last stage, there are low birth and death rates. Birth rates may drop to a level that causes the population to shrink, a threat to many industries that rely on this population growth. Although the fourth stage is considered to be the last stage, there is a 'fifth stage' that some people consider nations to have. This is when nations move into below-replacement fertility levels. Along with this some consider stage five to be very different, and actually suggest an increase in fertility. This is a very idealized picture of population change, but this is the basics of demographic transition.